Apa itu NFP?
NFP adalah satu kajian yang dijalankan oleh Bureau of Labor Statistics sesebuah negara untuk menilai/mengira jumlah pekerja negara tersebut. Walaubagaimana pun ia tidak tergolong oleh beberapa pekerjaan seperti- golongan yang tidak bekerja (tp dapat unemployment claim)
- kerja kerajaan tidak di ambil kira huhuhu
- Kerja kebajikan (non Profit Orgn.) NPO ni bahaya juga tau ia terlibat secara langsung atau tidak dalam International Terroristsm (heheh ni masa aku study current issue of Offshore Banking.
- Petani, peladang ni semua la tidak termasuk..
So NFP ni melibat secara langsung dalam GDP , employment and unemplyment rate.. dan ia menetukan kedudukan atau kekuatan ekonomi sama ada WEEK atau STRONG dan secara tidak langsung juga matawang terlibat sama...
Ok kita dah tahu data-data penting yg mempengaruhi NFP ini... so mari kita jangkakan US lemah atau Kuat..
Jom.. layan.........
Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjustedOk data dah ader,, n indikator pun saya dah bagi tahu ttg aper yang mempengaruhi NFP ni..
(Numbers in thousands)
_______________________________________________________________________________
| | |
| Quarterly | |
| averages | Monthly data | Aug.-
Category |_________________|__________________________| Sept.
| | | | | | change
| II | III | July | Aug. | Sept. |
| 2008 | 2008 | 2008 | 2008 | 2008 |
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
HOUSEHOLD DATA | Labor force status
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Civilian labor force ....| 154,294| 154,730| 154,603| 154,853| 154,732| -121
Employment ............| 146,089| 145,517| 145,819| 145,477| 145,255| -222
Unemployment ..........| 8,204| 9,213| 8,784| 9,376| 9,477| 101
Not in labor force ......| 79,117| 79,381| 79,261| 79,253| 79,628| 375
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
| Unemployment rates
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
All workers .............| 5.3| 6.0| 5.7| 6.1| 6.1| 0.0
Adult men .............| 4.9| 5.7| 5.3| 5.6| 6.1| .5
Adult women ...........| 4.6| 4.9| 4.6| 5.3| 4.9| -.4
Teenagers .............| 17.4| 19.5| 20.3| 18.9| 19.1| .2
White .................| 4.7| 5.3| 5.1| 5.4| 5.4| .0
Black or African | | | | | |
American ............| 9.1| 10.6| 9.7| 10.6| 11.4| .8
Hispanic or Latino | | | | | |
ethnicity ...........| 7.2| 7.7| 7.4| 8.0| 7.8| -.2
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
ESTABLISHMENT DATA | Employment
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Nonfarm employment.......| 137,699|p137,448| 137,550|p137,477|p137,318| p-159
Goods-producing (1)....| 21,565| p21,373| 21,437| p21,380| p21,303| p-77
Construction ........| 7,242| p7,153| 7,173| p7,160| p7,125| p-35
Manufacturing .......| 13,563| p13,433| 13,487| p13,431| p13,380| p-51
Service-providing (1)..| 116,134|p116,075| 116,113|p116,097|p116,015| p-82
Retail trade (2)...| 15,337| p15,272| 15,302| p15,277| p15,237| p-40
Professional and | | | | | |
business services .| 17,980| p17,866| 17,904| p17,861| p17,834| p-27
Education and health | | | | | |
services ..........| 18,823| p18,983| 18,935| p18,994| p19,019| p25
Leisure and | | | | | |
hospitality .......| 13,683| p13,643| 13,655| p13,645| p13,628| p-17
Government ..........| 22,439| p22,526| 22,502| p22,533| p22,542| p9
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
| Hours of work (3)
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Total private ...........| 33.7| p33.7| 33.7| p33.7| p33.6| p-0.1
Manufacturing .........| 41.0| p40.9| 41.0| p40.9| p40.7| p-.2
Overtime ............| 3.9| p3.7| 3.8| p3.7| p3.6| p-.1
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
| Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100)(3)
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Total private ...........| 107.2| p106.7| 106.9| p106.8| p106.3| p-0.5
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
| Earnings (3)
|_____________________________________________________
Average hourly earnings, | | | | | |
total private .........| $17.95| p$18.12| $18.06| p$18.14| p$18.17| p$0.03
Average weekly earnings, | | | | | |
total private .........| 605.40| p610.15| 608.62| p611.32| p610.51| p-.81
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________
Mari kita kaji...
Kita lihat pada bulan 8 dan 9.. unemployemnet bertambah dan sudah tentu kerja byk yang hilang... so kita dah nampak... ekonomi US lemah la... bergitu juga dengan matawangnyer skali..
Ok kita mesti lihat apa yang berlaku pada bulan 9 sebenarnya..
Total nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 159,000 in September.
Thus far in 2008, payroll employment has fallen by 760,000. Over the
month, employment continued to decline in manufacturing, construction,
and retail trade.Manufacturing employment fell by 51,000 over the month, bringing
the decline in factory jobs to 442,000 over the past 12 months.Construction lost 35,000 jobs over the month.
Employment in retail trade dropped by 40,000 in September and by
250,000 over the last 12 months.Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by 16,000 in
September and by 57,000 since its peak 12 months earlier. Over the
month, job losses occurred in trucking (-12,000) and air transporta-
tion (-5,000).In September, employment in financial activities fell by 17,000,
with nearly half of the decline occurring in securities and investment
firms.Employment in professional and business services continued to trend
down over the month (-27,000), largely reflecting further job cuts in
employment services.In September, the average workweek for production and nonsupervi-
sory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.6
hours, seasonally adjusted.Hurricane Ike |
| |
| Hurricane Ike struck the east coast of Texas and portions |
| of coastal Louisiana on September 13th in the midst of the |
| establishment survey reference period. For the weather condi-|
| tions to have affected payroll employment, people would have |
| had to be off work for the entire pay period and not paid for |
| the time missed. Therefore, it is unlikely the storm had sub-|
| stantial effects on the national employment estimates. |
| |
| In the household survey, people who miss work for weather- |
| related events are counted as employed whether or not they |
| are paid for the time off.
So.. dgn ini sedikit sebanyak rakan-rakan dapat menentukan arah pergerakan trend NFP nanti..
NFP utk esok adalah hasil servuy/data/penyelidikan tentang bulan September 2008...
Sama-sama kita nanti kan...
Salam.....
Good Luck
Salam semua… pagi isnin ni saya ada buat analisis mengikut system CHAOS ni…
